Published: Fri, March 10, 2017
Science | By Kerry Wheeler

Nothing Changed: BJP Wave and Congress Decline

Nothing Changed: BJP Wave and Congress Decline

Most polls also forecast a close fight between the Congress, which is seeking to return to power in Punjab after a hiatus of 10 years, and Arvind Kejriwal's AAP, making its debut in the Assembly polls in the State.

As exit polls started coming in on Thursday, the Bharatiya Janata Party clearly seemed ahead in at least four of the five states in which assembly elections were held between February 4 and March 8. The vote count is due on Saturday.

Of the 403 Assembly berths in UP, India Today-Axis projected 251 to 279 seats to the BJP, 88-112 to SP-Congress and 28-42 seats to BSP.

So if we average out taking the route of 'Poll of Polls, then BJP will get 179 seats, lower than absolute majority while SP-Congress alliance will end up getting 136 seats, not even reaching the half-way mark but breathing very closely on BJP's neck. They predicted 0-2 seats for AAP while 3-6 seats to MGP and 1-3 to others. Shah returned the fire by exhorting people to get rid of KaSaB (Congress, SP and BSP). The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is in power in Delhi, is projected to turn in a very strong performance with an outside chance of actually emerging the victor. Punjab assembly has 117 seats. They give BSP 60-72 seats.

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Congress is the victor with between 62 to 71 seats. It estimates Congress will get between 9 and 13 seats, while AAP is predicted to be at the bottom of the table, with a maximum of two seats. India TV predicted a hung Assembly, projecting 15-21 seats for the BJP and 12-18 for the Congress. According to Times Now-VMR, other political outfits may get just eight seats.

Stakes are also high in a three-way fight between Shiromani-Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab. The exit polls also threw up contradictory predictions for Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. "Though there is no upward swing in the party's performance, BJP has definitely consolidated its national presence and has successfully replaced the Congress in national politics", said N. Bhaskara Roa, a Delhi-based political analyst.

The IndiaToday-Axis poll, however, showed the Congress winning 30-36 and the BJP 16-22.

In Uttarakhand, C-Voter gives both the BJP and the Congress equal chances, with the former doing well in the Garhwal region and the latter in the Kumaon region.

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